Circle CRCL Climbs 97% in a Month, Closes at $117 in March 2026

Circle Internet Group, the company behind USDC, closed at $117.18 on March 10 after a one-month rally that lifted CRCL 97.01% while the broader crypto market sold off. The move followed a fourth-quarter earnings beat, continued USDC circulation growth, and a market shift toward valuing Circle as rate-sensitive financial infrastructure rather than a simple crypto proxy.

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Context

Circle has become a rare winner among crypto-linked equities during the latest market pullback. CRCL closed at $117.18 on March 10, up 4.77% on the day, while Bitcoin sentiment remained in Extreme Fear territory and the total crypto market dropped from about $2.56 trillion on March 5 to about $2.21 trillion on March 10.

That divergence matters because Circle’s business model is tied to reserve income on the U.S. Treasury-backed assets supporting USDC. As rates stay higher for longer, investors have started to treat Circle more like regulated financial infrastructure than a high-beta crypto stock.

The regulatory backdrop also improved over the past year. Circle said it received conditional approval in December to establish a national trust bank, and that milestone became part of the company’s case for deeper integration with traditional finance.

Details

The immediate catalyst was earnings. Circle reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue and reserve income of $770 million, up 77% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA rose to $167 million and full-year revenue reached $2.7 billion.

USDC growth was also stronger than some market commentary suggested. Circle reported that USDC in circulation reached $75.3 billion at the end of 2025, up 72% year over year, and the company’s USDC page showed supply at $77.2 billion as of March 6.

Those figures are important because they correct two numbers that should not be used in publication. Circle’s own disclosures support $75.3 billion at year-end and 72% annual growth, not the unsupported $72 billion supply figure or 107% growth claim that appeared in earlier summaries.

“While high rates theoretically generate more revenue for us, they actually hinder the velocity of money in the economy. We believe that as rates decrease, it will lead to greater adoption and growth,” Jeremy Allaire, Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman at Circle Internet Group, told Reuters on February 25, 2026.​

Impact

The market is increasingly pricing Circle on earnings sensitivity to interest rates. Reserve income reached $733 million in the quarter, and Circle said that figure rose primarily because average USDC in circulation grew 100% year over year, even as the reserve return rate declined by 68 basis points.

That thesis is now showing up directly in analyst language. “Higher-for-longer rates are a major boost for Circle,” Dan Dolev, Analyst at Mizuho Securities, said when the firm raised its CRCL price target to $100 in early March.

The rally was not purely about fundamentals, though. “The magnitude of the move wasn’t purely about the headline numbers. Positioning was the real catalyst,” said Markus Thielen, Founder of 10x Research, describing the post-earnings squeeze that followed Circle’s results.

That combination of earnings momentum, short covering, and regulatory clarity helps explain why Circle outperformed while other crypto-linked names struggled. It also suggests that stablecoin infrastructure is starting to trade on reserve economics, compliance, and payment utility rather than on crypto sentiment alone.

Next Steps

The next test is whether Circle can convert reserve-driven momentum into a broader platform story. Management said Arc remains on track for a mainnet launch this year after processing more than 166 million transactions on testnet with near-100% uptime and half-second transaction finality.

Investors will also watch Circle Payments Network and non-reserve revenue. Circle said 55 financial institutions were enrolled in CPN and another 74 were in eligibility review as of February 20, while other revenue rose to $37 million in the fourth quarter.​

The main risk remains the rate cycle. If policy rates fall materially, Circle may lose part of the earnings tailwind that helped drive the stock’s rerating, even if USDC adoption continues to expand across payments, treasury, and onchain finance.

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P.S. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research and make independent decisions.