Polymarket Report: 84% of 2.5 Million Traders Lose Money, Apr 2026

An April 2026 on-chain analysis of 2.5 million Polymarket wallet addresses by researcher Andrey Sergeenkov found that 84.1% of traders are in the red. Only 2% have earned more than $1,000 over their full trading history, and just 840 addresses - 0.033% of the total - crossed $100,000 in cumulative profit.

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Context

Polymarket has grown from a niche DeFi protocol into the world's largest on-chain prediction market. Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the NYSE, invested $2 billion in October 2025, pushing the platform's valuation to $9 billion at the time. By early 2026, that figure had climbed past $20 billion.

Combined on-chain prediction market volumes grew 130-fold between early 2024 and late 2025, topping $13 billion per month. Polymarket alone processed over $22 billion in trading volume during the first 11 months of 2025. The platform now counts roughly 462,600 monthly active traders.

A December 2025 study by blockchain analyst DeFi Oasis, analyzing 124 million trades and 1.7 million addresses, had already flagged that 70% of traders were unprofitable. Sergeenkov's newer dataset covers 2.5 million addresses through April 1, 2026, and paints an even bleaker picture.

Details

Sergeenkov tracked every USDC flow on Polygon - buys, sells, redemptions, splits, and merges - across both the CTF Exchange and NegRisk CTF Exchange smart contracts. His methodology caught token splits and merges that the earlier DeFi Oasis study missed, which explains the gap between the two reports: 84% unprofitable vs. 70%.

The numbers at higher profit levels are stark. Just 1.25% of addresses averaged above $1,000 per month. Above $5,000 per month, the figure drops to 0.26% - about 6,600 addresses. Above $10,000 per month, it's 3,250 addresses, or 0.13% of all traders. Among those 6,600 wallets averaging over $5,000 monthly, 53% were active for only a single month, and just 2.6% stayed active longer than a year.

"Most traders show up, trade for a short period, and leave" - Andrey Sergeenkov, On-chain Researcher

A separate academic paper from IMDEA Networks Institute, analyzing 86 million on-chain transactions from April 2024 to April 2025, found that arbitrage traders alone extracted an estimated $40 million in profit. The top single wallet earned $2 million from 4,049 trades - an average of $496 per trade.

Impact

The profitability numbers land at an awkward time for Polymarket's retail push. The platform became MLB's exclusive prediction market partner on March 19, with a deal estimated at up to $300 million over three years. It already holds similar partnerships with the NHL, MLS, and UFC.

"Polymarket is about bringing fans closer to the moments that define sports" - Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO of Polymarket

That fan-engagement pitch sits uncomfortably next to the data. Sergeenkov's report flagged that a new influencer-driven referral program - offering 30% of fees from referred users - risks funneling another wave of inexperienced traders onto the platform without adequate education. The decline in profitable-trader percentages over time tracks directly with user-growth surges, particularly after the November 2024 U.S. election.

Academic research from IMDEA also showed that the biggest profits concentrate among wallets using automated strategies: arbitrage bots, market-making algorithms, and speed-trading systems. Retail traders who react manually to news tend to arrive after prices have already moved.

Next Steps

Polymarket announced on April 6 what it calls the platform's largest infrastructure change since launch: a rebuilt trading engine, upgraded smart contracts, and a new USDC-backed collateral token called Polymarket USD, replacing bridged USDC.e. The rollout is expected within two to three weeks.

The platform's planned POLY governance token - confirmed by Polymarket's CMO in October 2025 - remains unlaunched. If and when it arrives, POLY could separate dispute resolution from trading, giving the platform tighter control over market integrity.

Sergeenkov suggested Polymarket could improve outcomes by introducing play-money prediction markets, where users practice forecasting without real capital at risk. Cross-platform data shows play-money markets can produce accuracy comparable to real-money markets in certain categories. Whether Polymarket acts on that idea - or continues prioritizing growth - will shape what the next wave of 2.5 million traders looks like.

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P.S. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research and make independent decisions.